Confessions Of a Secret England Fan

A Curious Anglo-South American Spin on the forthcoming World Cup

Here in Buenos Aires the country is going world cup crazy, with giant players such as Messi, Veron and Palermo looking down at you from massive advertising billboards along the wide avenues that lead into the city centre. Messi’s advertising razor blades, Veron aftershave and Palermo TVs, but one thing they’ve got in common is that they’re all decked out in the national team’s blue and white striped shirt.

Cars drive around with flags flying out of the windows, or with photos of the players taped onto to the windows. When you ask these people who will win the world cup, they are absolutely certain. Argentina, they say, without attaching caveats such as “injuries permitting” or “with a bit of luck”. They’re absolutely certain.

Meanwhile, this Saturday the “Self-Preservation Society” will have their first secret meeting at my place in Buenos Aires. This elite group is comprised of England football fans living here in town, almost all English teachers, who’ll walk eagerly to my place, looking for all the world like any normal, respectable porteno (Buenos Aires resident). Upon entering the house they’ll be able to take off their sweater and proudly show their England shirts-to do so out on the city streets would seriously risk being beaten up-and sit down and watch England v USA. We’ll have to put the music on at high volume to hide the cheering if England should score, otherwise word might get out that ‘hay ingleses aca!’. At half time and full time it’ll be out into the garden with the football to re-enact the key moments of the game, Baddiel and Skinner style.

So before the great event gets going, here’s my anglo-south American spin on things, together with my tips for the eventual winners.

Group A

The tightest of all the groups, an argument could be made for any of the four not just qualifying, but winning the group. South Africa are greatly improved under their highly experienced Brazilian manager, Parriera. FIFA have a track record for turning a blind eye to referee’s favouring host countries (e.g. South Korea in 2002) and politically, it’s hard to imagine that they won’t be helped by having opposition goals ruled out or being allowed to get away with shameless hacking. They are also one of only two teams in the whole tournament who are used to playing at altitude, the other being Mexico.

Mexico played all of the football in their recent match against England at Wembley and were unfortunate to lose, and then went and beat Italy in Brussels. France have their eternal internal problems, everyone in the country hates the team and despises the manager, but they have unquestionable talent. They are potential winners, but find themselves low on confidence after a troubled qualifying campaign, Henry’s shameful handball(s) against Ireland and with the memory of failure in the group stages at the last European Championships.

Uruguay are something of an enigma. I love their sky blue shirt, a real fashion classic. This tiny nation of four million people, twice world cup winners, has some players of great talent, such as Forlan and Luis Suarez. However, as is to be expected with such a low population, they lack strength in depth and struggled terribly in qualifying. Would be great if they showed the more creative side of their unquestionable football heritage rather that resorting to shameless fouling like in 1986 and 1990.

South Africa and Mexico to qualify, amazingly France to go out.

Group B

This will be a tight, tactical group. Nigeria will be as strong physically as always and carry the support of the South African fans. Greece will be negative and look to strike on the counter, according to the Mourinhoesque philosophy of their German coach,Renhagel.

South Korea will run around a lot and possess genuine talent. However, most attention will centre on the circus around the Argentinean team. So many questions will be answered in the next month. Is Maradona a serious coach, or just insane? Will Maradona finally manage to find a formation that gets the best out of Messi? Neutrals who haven’t watched Argentina play recently will be amazed to see quite how anonymous ‘La pulga’ is in the blue and white shirt compared to the magic he weaves with Barca. Can a team really win the world cup playing FOUR centre-backs? Can Maradona find places for the rich array of striking talent at his disposal-Messi, Tevez, Higuain and Milito?

Knowing Maradona, my money’s on either a triumph or a total disaster. He’s promised to run through the centre of the city naked if the team win. He doesn’t do things by halves. Don’t be surprised if he’s lifting the Cup on 11th July, but don’t be surprised, either, if he’s been banned for life by FIFA by then, for running on the pitch and beating up a referee and then dishing out the same treatment to Sepp Blatter outside the dressing rooms.

Argentina and Nigeria to qualify.

Group C

If I wasn’t an England fan, I’d hate this group. It looks so boring, and I’m predicting six crap games with few goals. I refuse to make any predictions about England, apart from saying that obviously we’ve got no chance of winning the world cup. Our chances begin and end with Fabio Capello, it’s as simple as that. The USA could cause us a shock in the first game. Slovenia and Algeria both seem to be poor teams who got lucky in qualifying play-offs against superior teams (Russia and Egypt respectively).

England and USA to qualify.

Group D

Fascinating group. For me, Germany will reach the semis. Yes, their strikers are old and out of form, but they have plenty of talent. The youth (largely of Turkish extraction) that they have coming through is frightening and they’ll be an even bigger force in coming years. Serbia always seem a bit one-dimensional in major tournaments-strong in defence but lacking in ambition. Australia were stronger four years ago. Ghana have plenty of talent and strength in depth. They could well beat England in the second round.

Germany and Ghana to qualify.

Group E

Holland, Holland, Holland. Along with Spain, the most talented European team. Do they have any weaknesses? If they should play Spain in the latter stages it would be one for the purists. In this world cup it’s the Europeans who’ll play with fantasy, not the South Americans!

Denmark don’t have the attacking skills of the Danish Dynamite are but are hard enough to beat and should contest second place with Cameroon. Japan will fight gamely but go home early.

Holland and Cameroon to qualify.

Group F

I hate this group almost as much as England’s. However, listen carefully. This Italy side are better that the one that won the cup four years ago. Never ever listed amongst the favourites, bet against them at your peril. Definitely a team to avoid at all costs in the knock-out stages, capable of taking superior teams to penalties (eg. Spain in the Euros of 2008) and managed once again by the old fox, Lippi, who’s sitting in a hotel room right now analysing the weaknesses of ALL their potential opponents. Yes, they lack creativity in midfield without the talisman Totti but they have a great keeper, strong defence, strong holding midfielders and a range of attacking options.

Slovakia beat the Czech Republic in qualifying top of their group and have a surprisingly rich footballing heritage-most of the Czechoslovakia side who won the Euros in 1976 were Slovaks, rather that Czechs-and will be hard to beat.

Paraguay will be cheered on by Juan, the Paraguayan armed-security guard on the corner of my street. He’s got a gun, so I’m cheering on La Albirroja as well. I’ve been at pains to explain to him that I won’t be cheering on Italy against his team, and Daniela’s emphasised that she doesn’t give a t--- about football anyway. Here loads of Paraguayan people work in service jobs, escaping the poventy of their land-locked homeland. They are an exotic team, speaking an indigenous language, Guarani in their training camp, rather than Spanish, having an Argentinean manager, Gerardo Martino, and several naturalised Argentinean-born players, whose parents were amongst the first wave of Paraguayos who came to Buenos Aires seeking work in the 1980s. One such player is Benfica’s Cardozo who along with Manchester City’s Santa Cruz, gives Paraguay what they’ve lacked in previous tournaments, an attacking threat to balance their defensive solidity.

As for New Zealand, they should send the All Blacks, they’d stand more chance.

Italy and Paraguay to qualify

Group G

North Korea’s entire squad will probably do a runner at half time, Escape to Victory style, at half time during one of their games, rather than risk returning back to their poverty stricken homeland. If they’ve got any decent players Tisdale should sign them up for Exeter City. What do FA regulations say about signing political refugees?

Brazil are frighteningly efficient. As Capello said “They don’t give you any space”. Great defence. However, it’s always possible to nullify their attacking threat, and a weaker team could get a 0-0 against them, potentially worrying in the knock-out phase. Dunga is a great coach, even if highly unpopular in Brazil where the fans still yearn for the beautiful game. Why did Inter overlook him for the manager’s job? He knows Italian football intimately, knows the Brazilian players too.

Portugal will miss Nani. Their approach play will, as always, be a delight to watch, but what about the finished product. For me, they still lack someone to put away the bucketload of chances that they’ll certainly create. A recent 0-0 draw against the Cape Verde Islands was a classic example.

The Elephants of the Ivory Coast will qualify from this Group of Death, and go on to welcome the injured Drogba back into the side in the knockout phase.

Brazil and Ivory Coast to qualify.

Group H

I’m in love with Spain. Who wouldn’t be? Watch them once, and the other teams are just not up to the same level. They are scoring goals for fun, have an experienced coach, have lost once in the last four years, have no weaknesses and, finally, know how to win. Certainly, the favourites for the cup and it would be a wonderful thing for world football if a team playing in such an entertaining style should lift the trophy.

However, we must remember that this is a cup competition, rather than a championship, and sometimes the best team doesn’t win the cup. Were Italy the best team in the world in 2006? Were Germany the second best team in the world when they reached the final in 2002, having been thrashed 5-1 at home by England six months previously? The answer is no, and for this reason I believe that in the midst of a cold, dark, winter night in the southern hemisphere, another more cynical team will knock Spain out during the latter stages of the tournament, an Italy, Germany or Argentina.

Chile are a fascinating young team. Another team managed by an Argentine, Bielsa, La roja will play an attacking 3-1-3-3 formation and their game against Spain should be a highlight. They press the other team high up the pitch and have to hope on the fitness of their star striker, Humberto Suezo.

Honduras have loads of injuries which further complicate an already difficult task. Switzerland began their qualifying campaign losing 2-1 at home to Luxembourg, a result that should have seen them eliminated there and then.

Spain and Chile to qualify

As for the knock out stages, I’m predicting a last four containing at least three out of Italy, Germany, Argentina and Brazil. Yes, I’m boring. Looking at the draw, South Africa, Mexico or Ghana could sneak into the semis, not because they’re better than a host of other teams (Span, Holland, England, Ivory Coast to name but a few) but just because they have a kinder draw.

Brazil or Argentina will lift the trophy.